Nov-2019’s target support level @ 25,927.70 pts is still intact as the index forms a bearish impulsive wave since late May-2019 thus we expect the index to continue to fall towards a new target range btw 23,438.91 pts – 25,977.54 pts if resistance @ 27,140.85 pts & 27,983 pts level(s) are not broken in the coming trading days.
The Traders Navigator indicator is also confirming the expected fall as it spots a bearish divergence within a long-term contracting triangle (since Oct-2018) where the next wave (5.4.d) should be bearish thus the probability of a bearish market in the first 2 weeks of Dec-2019 is high.
21/12/2019 (updated dd. 12/1/2020)
21/12/2019 commentary – The new target support level to watch is @ 26,113.90 pts thus the last low in Oct-2019. The index is developing two (2) potential wave paths: a) an ending diagonal or b) a contracting triangle. Notwithstanding, the end wave is bearish with a fall to or below 26,113.90 pts support level in the coming trading weeks.
MACD is also confirming the expected bearish trend as it recently formed a bearish hook thus the probability of a bearish market in Jan-2020 is very high.
12/1/2020 commentary – The index hit a new low @ 26,018.10 pts dd. 24/12/2019 thereby completing the ending diagonal which was confirmed by the extremely bullish rebound that followed.
The Traders Navigator indicator is also confirming the extreme bullish trend as shown in the above diagram…..thus we expect the bullish trend to cover the 1Q2020 till dividend payment period.
The index is now in a sideways movement with an expectant rally in the 2-H-Feb-2020. Feb-2020 remains bullish within a calm trading month. If MACDH falls below zero level, prepare to take initial profits !!!
We strongly advise investors to watch attentively price movements in Brent Crude Oil Market as this external factor can be a game changer in the 2020 expectations in the Nigerian financial markets.