Forget the January (Santa Claus) rally this festive season. The index neither broke below critical support level @ 28,900 pts nor broke above critical resistance level @ 30,545 pts thereby confirming that wave ‘5.3’ of the developing ending diagonal e.w.p is incomplete. Thus in the coming trading days, investors can expect a further drop in the ASI (index) below 28.900 pts level.
The NGSEASI index was quite impulsively bullish this week confirming a significant bottom @ 29,348 pts level. Thus, interestingly the market may have entered a bullish run during the final election month of Feb-2019 against the general public bearish expectation. Notwithstanding, we are of the view that this new bull run is actually a bear market rally (trap) and should peak within the major resistance range between 33,570 pts – 35,190 pts levels.
The NGSEASI index seems to forming a lower high which may confirm a short-term top @ 32,959 pts level. We expect a correction towards support range between 30,526 pts – 31,438 pts levels before the intermediate-term bull run re-continues.
Notwithstanding, we are of the view that this new bull run is actually a bear market rally (bull trap) which can peak within the major resistance range between 33,570 pts – 35,190 pts levels.
Market is at a crossroad and we preview 2 potential paths for the index in the coming trading days of April-2019 as shown below:
Path #1: The NGSEASI index seems to be moving within an intermediate-term bullish trend channel where it touched the channel’s lower limit and in the coming month of April-2019 may reach the upper limit at a resistance range between 33,569.70 pts – 34,407.83 pts
Path #2: The NGSEASI index seems to continue the short-term bearish trend towards a target support range between 28,350.10 pts – 29,352.40 pts thus may be forming a flat pattern.
Notwithstanding, we are of the view that both paths remain part of a larger degree bear market rally (bull trap).