Update: (dd. 16/5/2018)
NPF Microfinance Bank Plc’s FY-2107 dividend => N0.17 and it’s qualification date dd. 1/6/2018 thus currently it has a div. yield of 8.76% which is above the market’s av. 4%. There is a considerable dividend play opportunity.
In the long term, we believe that we have completed a shallow leading diagonal which topped @ N2.12 thus we should expect either a shallow correction towards N1.56 or a deep correction towards N1.22 (and even deeper).
In the intermediate term, we believe that we are in a bearish correction but in the short term, we believe that the stock is in a bullish rebound from it’s recent low @ N1.75 forming an expanded flat which should top @ N2.04 level.
The stock’s TNTL indicator (trend forecaster) gave a new ‘buy’ signal dd. 14/5/2018 (last Monday) but let’s watch if the market breaks over the N2.22 level before we take a long-term ”sell” position….
Update: (dd. 17/5/2018)
In the short-term, further observation has proven that the stock is yet to top @ N2.12 level and it’s sideways movement since Feb-2018 is forming a running triangle pattern whose tip should be around N1.83 level and then a bullish breakout towards a top @ N2.22 level.
Thus in the coming trading days, we should expect a correction towards N1.80 – N1.85 range.
Update: (dd. 28/5/2018)
With it’s qualification date at the week’s end, currently an estimated div. yield of 8.81% which remains significantly above the market’s av. of 4%.
The running triangle pattern may have reached it’s tip last week and the doji formed @ N1.85 (which is close to our ”17/5/2018” target @ N1.83) may be the tip. If yes, we should expect a bullish breakout in the coming trading days even before 1/6/2018.
Update: (dd. 5/6/2018)
Unfortunately, there was no bullish breakout for now. Currently, looking at the stock’s daily time frame – we are very close to the critical support level @ N1.68 which if broken 2moro will lead to the formation of an alternative new pattern. A rebound from N1.68 level will keep the ‘descending triangle’ pattern alive.
Update: (dd. 13/6/2018):
Yes, NPFMCRFBK broke below our former critical support level @ N1.68 to it’s recent bottom @ N1.61 thereby creating a new pattern which remains under development.
Notwithstanding in the intermediate-term, we have identified two bullish divergences (marked in blue & green lines) which were confirmed by the market in last three trading days. Even, there was an initiation gap !!!
The stock needs to break confidently above our initial resistance level @ N1.85 to confirm that we have entered a potential new bull run…