The belated recognition of June 12 as Democracy day and the post-humorous award of the GCFR on Moshood Abiola, has left political opponents in consternation and allies surprised.
This sudden twist of events which has split the ranks of former dictators into born-again democrats and the others. This confirms the views that politics is now the dominant whilst economics is the recessive chromosome, as we head towards the 2019 election.
Notwithstanding, we must recognize the positive trends of some leading economic indicators, which include higher crude oil revenue at $9bn in Q1, a 21% surge in the external trade balance, the 15-month consecutive decline in headline inflation and the recent recovery of the naira back to N362/$ in the forex market after a speculative attack on the currency.
On the negative side, we have seen a cumulative crash of 17.17% in the PMI in 2 months and a sharp fall in the stock market (14% from Feb to May-end) before its recent gains (6.05%). The data analytics of Q1 GDP, and the curious failure to release the unemployment numbers on June 5th as scheduled, is raising eyebrows. This means that the economy is oblivious to the political manoeuvring of incumbents and opponents alike.
In this edition of the LBS Breakfast Club Session, Bismarck Rewane and the FDC Think Tank discuss these and other macro-economic & policy issues and its impact on your business. Enjoy your read!