Tuesday’s was an interesting but mixed and volatile trading session at the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) as its composite NSE All-Share Index caved into pressure initially, sliding down in the morning hours. Thereafter, it rose just as sharply as it went down before managing to maintain an uptrend and in the process confirming a breakout of the first resistant level on a high volume of trade. The moving-average however supported and then rebounded to close the day higher. It retested the highs and made higher highs on the index and rolled over by the afternoon.
Market sentiment and expected numbers on Wednesday will determine a breakout at this level to continue the nine-day rally.
The NSE Consumer Goods index closed higher to continue the recovery move in the sector and market with improved demand for stocks as revealed by the volume traded index at 0.79; just as buying position was 100%, with 0% selling volume of the total for the day.
Investors are looking beyond the inflation figure because most of the economic data are backward looking or historical, while stock markets are forward looking as a leading indicator that points to where the economy is heading. One key data pointing to support the economic recovery is corporate earnings, which is being eagerly expected by all class of investors and traders as such numbers give a hint of where the stock is headed and if indeed it worth holding for the short, medium or long-term, depending on investment horizon and objective, especially with consumer goods stocks looking attractive at this point. Also, the current pullbacks in the financial services and petroleum marketing sectors are creating opportunity for traders and investors to take advantage and position ahead in companies with history of Q2 interim dividend payment, many of which are found in both sectors.
Stock markets around the world were mixed with the global interest rate spreads in the U.S. are narrowing as oil price continued to oscillate on high demand from China and the weakening U.S. Dollar. Among the winners arising from the weakness of U.S. Dollar are the Euro and the European stock markets.
Meanwhile, the All-Share Index gained 135.18 basis points yesterday to close at 33,436.61 after opening at 33,301.43 points, representing a 0.41% growth on huge volume traded that was higher than previous day’s trades. Similarly, market capitalisation went up by N46.59 billion to close at N11.52 trillion from an opening value of N11.48 trillion, representing a 0.41% value appreciation.
Value gained in low, medium and high cap stocks impacted the All-Share index, to boost year-to-date returns to 24.42%. Also, market capitalisation over the same period improved by N2.28 trillion, representing a 24.62% gain above the year’s opening value.
Market breadth for Tuesday was positive as the number of advancers outpaced decliners in the ratio of 25:19 on a huge volume of trade to continue the nine-day bull transition, while transaction volume and value were up by 664.59% and 690% respectively at 2.4bn shares worth N21.61bn, from the previous day’s 322.86m units valued at N2.73bn.
Note that the high amount recorded in the volume and value seen on the market statistic table which differs from that on the price list was because of the special resolution performed by UBA shareholders to cancel shares held under Staff Investment Trust Scheme (SSIT). In order to effect the cancellation, United Bank for Africa (UBA Plc) took to the equities market a cross deal of about 2bn units from the SSIT to the bank (<a href=”http://investdata.com.ng/2017/07/uba-buys-back-set-cancel-2-08bn-shares-book/#more”>READ</a>). This does not in anyhow affect the bank’s financial position, rather it enhancing shareholders percentage holdings while boosting the earnings position in terms of supporting higher Earnings Per Share and dividend payment that will drive price in the short, medium, or long term.
Transactions in the shares of UBA, CONTINENTAL REINSURANCE, FBNH, OANDO and SKYE BANK topped the volume chart to close the day’s trade on news of the extension of the CBN’s lifeline for another year and the management’s successful recovery of N60bn of its bad loans in the past one year (<a href=”http://investdata.com.ng/2017/07/skye-bank-recovers-n60bn-bad-loans-cbn-extends-guarantees/”>Read</a>).
At the end of the day trading, Honeywell Flour topped the advancers’ log, gaining 8.29% to close at N1.96 each on impressive Q4 numbers laced with the dividend of 6kobo. This is besides expectations of an even more impressive Q1 helped by the sustained intervention of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) in the FX market that continues to reflect on numbers from this and other sectors. It was followed by UBN with a 5.00% gain to close at N5.67 per share, on market forces and expectation of its Q2 numbers at a time the bank’s repositioning is likely to better impact on bottom line.
On the flipside, May & Baker led the decliners’ log after dropping 5.02% to close at N2.65 on profit taking activities of investors and traders. It was followed by AXA Mansard, 4.93% decline to close at N2.12 on market forces and profit taking.
With the market opening this morning, expect the uptrend to continue as more companies release their Q2 numbers and the earnings reporting season enters its peak period. (Note: The benchmark index was 0.41% up at 10.30am on Wednesday). Investors should not panic on the pullbacks if they have taken position based on strong numbers and future prospects of any stock, but fix their gaze on the actual numbers and bail out when expectations are not met, thereby cutting their loss.
Again, we advise that investors allow numbers to guide their decisions while repositioning for the rest of the year’s trading activities, especially now that prices of stocks are looking up ahead of the improving economic fundamentals, if the numbers will support the price reversal or continuation.
It is time to use your technical tools to take decision by knowing the support and resistant level to reposition or exit any position.
Be reminded for the repeated time that industry potential is very important when picking a stock, because there are factors that are sector-specific and would naturally impact positively or negatively on companies operating within such an industry, especially now that the economy is recovering. For stocks that should be on your shopping list to buy in this oscillating market or pullbacks. Sign up to INVESTDATA BUY AND SELL signal setup by calling 08032055467.
Meanwhile, we say a very big THANK YOU to all participants that made the INVESTDATA workshop a huge success, even as stocks recommended during the workshop have started rallying and activities in the various sectors identified as those to invest in this second half of 2017 continue to look up and promising to lead the rest of the year in performance and returns.